COLUMBUS, Ohio — This was supposed to be the game of the year. When the 2026 schedule came out, Oregon at Ohio State looked like a possible No. 1 versus No. 2 collision in November. Instead, Saturday afternoon at Ohio Stadium (3:30 p.m. ET, CBS) is something tenser: a superpower survival game between two proud programs whose College Football Playoff hopes cannot afford another dent.
No. 12 Ohio State (6-2, 4-1 Big Ten) hosts No. 23 Oregon (5-3, 3-2), with the Buckeyes installed as 7.5-point favorites and the total set at 45.5 — numbers that point to a game expected to be physical, cold and defensive.
The storyline of the day is the quarterbacks — specifically, the ones who are not playing. Both teams lost their elite true freshman starting quarterbacks to season-ending injuries, and both seasons bent around those losses.
Ohio State’s five-star freshman Julian Sayin, who threw for 2,007 yards and 19 touchdowns before he went down, is ruled out, handing the offense back to freshman backup Luke Fahey for his second career start. Fahey’s assignment is a bounce-back: the Buckeyes are coming off a bruising 30-18 road loss at USC, and his first start gave Oregon’s staff a full game of film to study.
Oregon’s situation mirrors it. With Dante Moore lost, the Ducks have turned to former Nebraska transfer Dylan Raiola, now making his fourth start of the season. Raiola arrives with momentum — last weekend he keyed a resilient second-half comeback, with Oregon scoring 28 second-half points to beat Northwestern 34-26. He has thrown for 1,097 yards and nine touchdowns this season.
Ohio State’s clearest edge is the best player on the field. Wide receiver Jeremiah Smith has piled up 1,067 yards and 13 touchdowns this season, and his 15th career 100-yard receiving game matched Marvin Harrison Jr.’s school record. He sits at 3,625 career receiving yards, and Oregon’s senior-laden defensive line and opportunistic secondary will build their plan around keeping Fahey from finding him.
Expect the Buckeyes to lean on the ground game to protect their young quarterback — heavy sets built around Bo Jackson (637 rushing yards, four touchdowns) and Isaiah West, shortening the game and keeping pressure off the pocket.
Oregon, meanwhile, takes a real hit in its own backfield: power back Jordon Davison, the Ducks’ rushing leader with 439 yards and seven touchdowns, is ruled out. That leaves Raiola with diminished run support against an aggressive Ohio State defense coordinated by Matt Patricia, who is expected to throw confusing pre-snap looks at the young quarterback to force hesitation. The Buckeyes managed just one sack against USC, so defensive ends Kenyatta Jackson Jr. and Edric Houston breaking through Oregon’s protection is one of the day’s swing factors. On the other side, Matayo Uiagalelei, with six sacks, leads the Oregon pass rush.
One curveball to watch: head coach Dan Lanning recently replaced Oregon’s offensive coordinator, meaning Ohio State has only one game of film on the Ducks’ new play-calling tendencies — a genuine unknown in a game this tight.
The projection models and national analysts converge on a close, low-scoring Ohio State win that Oregon covers: Dimers projects Ohio State 28, Oregon 20, while Greg McElroy leans toward a 24-20 Buckeyes win, with the under a popular play in the cold November conditions.
Kickoff is 3:30 p.m. ET at the Horseshoe, televised on CBS and streaming on Fubo and Paramount+. The loser does not just drop a game — with two and three losses already on the ledger, the loser’s playoff path narrows to almost nothing. That is what survival looks like in November.
Photo: Lectrician2, CC BY-SA